The Extinction Clock

Welcome to the Extinction Clock, the Internet's authoritative source for end of world climate and extinction predictions.
All predictions have been made by notable individuals, academics, politicians, institutes, and the press.

Extinction Clock Date & Source Claim Doomsday Date Successful Prediction Share / Vote Up
November 8, 2019
80% of Emperor penguins will be extinct by 2100 without Paris Agreement.
See Quote
From The Australian (AAP), quote: "University of Canterbury scientist Michelle LaRue, co-author of a new study, says current rates of climate change will imperil the emperor penguin. [...] 'If global climate keeps warming at the current rate, we expect emperor penguins in Antarctica to experience an 86 per cent decline by the year 2100,' the paper's lead author, seabird ecologist Stephanie Jenouvrier said. [...] Should the world hold to 1.5 degree warming - the goal of the Paris Agreement; the centrepiece UN accord aimed at reducing emissions - emperor penguin populations are forecast to slide by 19 per cent".
Related: The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins, from Global Change Biology (November 7, 2019).
December 31, 2099 Not yet.
May 10, 2019
Increasing natural disasters, drought and heatwaves (The Australia Institute).
See Quote
From the Dawson Climate Assessment report (page 1), quote: "Unless strong action is taken on climate change, by 2070, well within our children's lifetime, the electorate of Dawson is projected to experience: Up to 25 percent increase in evaporation, Up to 50 percent reduction in rainfall, Up to 100 percent increase in heatwave days per year, Increasing fire risk, A 90-130 percent increase in the frequency of droughts and floods".
December 31, 2069 Not yet.
May 18, 1978
Within a lifetime, humans might be living in the next ice age.
See Quote
Narrated by Leonard Nimoy, from the "In Search Of" TV series (season 2, episode 23), quote: "Climate experts believe the next ice age is on its way. According to recent evidence, it could come sooner than anyone had expected. At weather stations in the far north, temperatures have been dropping for thirty years. Seacoasts, long free of summer ice are now blocked year-round. According to some climatologists, within a lifetime, we might be living in the next ice age".
Note: The average human lifetime is roughly 79 years.
May 18, 2057 Not yet.
Febuary 23, 2020
'Planet will be uninhabitable for billions of people' by 2050 without change, claims former Australian PM, Malcolm Turnbull.
See Quote
From Twitter, quote: "Watching @InsidersABC- hands wringing about 'how do we get to net zero by 2050?' Bottom line is if we don't get there the planet will be uninhabitable for billions of people. How do we get there? Answer is plain: [...] Reverse deforestation, reforest wherever possible. A decade ago the “how” was hard to see and very expensive relative to BAU [Business As Usual]. Now we can see a feasible, affordable route to net zero - the alternative is catastrophic. [...] The consequences of this transition: a habitable planet, cheaper energy, more economic growth and jobs. Regions? Most of the renewable investment is in the regions. To get there above all we need a coherent integration of climate and energy policy."
December 31, 2049 Not yet.
January 30, 2020
Melbourne 'at risk' of running out of fresh water by 2050.
See Quote
From 3AW, quote: "Melbourne will be at risk of running out of fresh water by the year 2050, with the Victorian capital rated fifth among 85 world cities tipped to be worst affected by climate change in a new report. Nestpick's 2050 climate change city index says Melbourne will be drastically impacted, including the greatest increase in 'water stress'. 'It certainly stacks up with what the climate science is showing will happen, if you don't do anything about it,' Jono La Nauze, CEO of Environment Victoria, told Tom Elliott".
Related: 2050 Climate Change City Index report (January 30, 2020).
December 31, 2049 Not yet.
October 29, 2019
Rising seas could leave coastal cities underwater 'by 2050', reigniting 'armed conflict' and 'likelihood of terrorism'.
See Quote
From the New York Times, quote: "Rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought, according to new research, threatening to all but erase some of the world's great coastal cities. [...] The new research shows that some 150 million people are now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by midcentury. [...] Southern Vietnam could all but disappear. [...] In Thailand, more than 10 percent of citizens now live on land that is likely to be inundated by 2050 [...] In Shanghai, one of Asia's most important economic engines, water threatens to consume the heart of the city and many other cities around it. [...] much of Mumbai, India's financial capital and one of the largest cities in the world, is at risk of being wiped out. [...] Alexandria, Egypt, founded by Alexander the Great around 330 B.C., could be lost to rising waters. [...] Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq, could be mostly underwater [...] Further loss of land to rising waters there 'threatens to drive further social and political instability in the region, which could reignite armed conflict and increase the likelihood of terrorism,' said General Castellaw, who is now on the advisory board of the Center for Climate and Security".
Related: New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding, from Nature Communications.
December 31, 2049 Not yet.
September 30, 2019
1-2 feet of sea-level rise in the Seattle area (Center for Climate Integrity).
See Quote
From the Seattle Times, quote: "Coastal flooding will increase as sea levels rise, and extreme events like hurricanes and storm surges will become more common and more severe. The diversity and numbers of marine fish and wildlife will decline due to warming water, shrinking habitats and dying coral reefs. [...] Local forecasters estimate 1-2 feet of sea-level rise in the Seattle area by 2050, and the Center for Climate Integrity estimates that Washington state will need to build more than 1,600 miles of sea walls at a cost of $24 billion to help deal with rising waters".
December 31, 2049 Not yet.
November 15, 2019
Arctic Ocean to be ice-free by 2044.
See Quote
From (Science X), quote: "But according to a new study by UCLA climate scientists, human-caused climate change is on track to make the Arctic Ocean functionally ice-free for part of each year starting sometime between 2044 and 2067".
Related: An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback, from Nature Communications (November 11, 2019).
December 31, 2043 Not yet.
December 6, 2020
'Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past', according to the BBC.
See Quote
From the BBC, quote: "It is one of a series of projections about how UK's climate could change, shared with BBC Panorama. It suggests by the 2040s most of southern England could no longer see sub-zero days. By the 2060s only high ground and northern Scotland are still likely to experience such cold days. [...] The average coldest day in the UK over the past three decades was -4.3 Celsius. If emissions continue to accelerate, leading to a global temperature rise of 4C, then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter. Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C, the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius. [...] 'The rate and nature of the climate change that we're seeing is unprecedented,' says Dr Mark McCarthy of the Met Office's National Climate Information Centre".
December 31, 2039 Not yet.
November 20, 2019
'It's now or never to avert catastrophe', according to The Guardian.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "Disastrous global heating will soon become irrevocable – but despite politicians' inaction millions are taking to the streets to fight the planet's fever. [...] But the climate crisis doesn't work like that. If we don't solve it soon, we will never solve it, because we will pass a series of irrevocable tipping points – and we're clearly now approaching those deadlines. [...] Under the most plausible scenario, they wrote, 'even if we peak in 2020 reducing emissions to zero within 20 years will be required,' and that is an ungodly steep slope. But if we wait past 2020 it's not a slope at all – it's just a cliff, and we fall off it".
December 31, 2039 Not yet.
October 25, 2019
U.S. Military Could Collapse Within 20 Years Due to Climate Change.
See Quote
From Motherboard (Vice), quote: "According to a new U.S. Army report, Americans could face a horrifically grim future from climate change involving blackouts, disease, thirst, starvation and war. The study found that the US military itself might also collapse. This could all happen over the next two decades, the report notes".
Related: Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army report (August 1, 2019).
August 1, 2039 Not yet.
December 20, 2009
Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035.
See Quote
From the MSNBC documentary, Future Earth 2025, quote: "Scientists predict the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035, as a warming planet leads to both evaporation and melting of the ice".
December 31, 2034 Not yet.
April 16, 1970
Scientist predicts a new ice age by 21st century.
See Quote
From The Boston Globe (page 18), quote: "Air pollution may obliterate the sun and cause a new ice age in the first third of the next century if population continues to grow and the earth's resources are consumed at the present rate, a pollution expert predicted yesterday".
March 31, 2033 Not yet.
July 27, 2019
Carbon dioxide budget to 'run out' in 12 years, says Greta Thunberg® (16 year old activist).
See Quote
In a speech made to the Paris National Assembly, quote: "There is no middle ground when it comes to the climate and ecological emergency. Of course you could argue that we should go for a more risky pathway, such as the alternative of 580 gigatons of CO2 from January 1st 2018, which gives us a 50/50 percent chance of limiting the global temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees. That amount of carbon dioxide will run out in about 12 years of current business as usual".
July 27, 2031 Not yet.
January 21, 2019
'The world is going to end', says Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
See Quote
Quote: "We're, like, the world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change".
January 21, 2031 Not yet.
December 16, 2019
Australian Senator, Richard Di Natale (Australian Greens) says we have 11 years to 'prevent the worst of the climate crisis'.
See Quote
From Twitter, quote: "We only have 11 years for global action to prevent the worst of the #climatecrisis. Australia's just wasted another precious year. Instead of agreeing to greater ambition, we spent #COP25 fighting to use our dodgy accounting tricks".
December 16, 2030 Not yet.
June 13, 2019
This Is Not A Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook.
See Quote
From essay 28, quote: "In October 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a stark warning: enact urgent measures to limit global warming within the next twelve years or irrevocably deplete the ecosystems that sustain human life on Earth".
October 31, 2030 Not yet.
October 8, 2018
12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN. Delegates 'hugging' & 'in tears'.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "The world's leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. [...] according to the 1.5C study, which was launched after approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries in Incheon in South Korea that saw delegates hugging one another, with some in tears".
October 8, 2030 Not yet.
November 26, 2019
Global emissions need to be cut to stop 'deadly & catastrophic heatwaves, storms & pollution', according to UNEP.
See Quote
From The UNEP, quote: "UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report warns that unless global greenhouse gas emissions fall by 7.6 per cent each year between 2020 and 2030, the world will miss the opportunity to get on track towards the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. [...] Failure to heed these warnings and take drastic action to reverse emissions means we will continue to witness deadly and catastrophic heatwaves, storms and pollution".
December 31, 2029 Not yet.
November 3, 2009
Snows of Mount Kilimanjaro 'to disappear in 20 years'.
See Quote
From The Telegraph (UK), quote: "More than 85 per cent of the ice that covered the three peaks of Africa's highest mountain has disappeared in the last 100 years and the rest is melting at such a rate it will be gone by 2030. [...] Their research shows that the melting is the worst in more than 11,000 years, when the ice was formed and is uncovering layers of dust not seen for thousands of years. It has even unlocked radioactive fallout from the American 1951-52 'Ivy' atomic tests that were embedded in the ice".
December 31, 2029 Not yet.
November 20, 2019
Major cities going underwater, 'increased drought', & 'millions of climate refugees', says Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
See Quote
From the MSNBC Democratic presidential primary debate of November 2019, quote: "We don't have decades. What the scientists are telling us, if we don't get our act together within the next eight or nine years, we’re talking about cities all over the world, major cities going underwater. We're talking about increased drought. We’re talking about increased extreme weather disturbances. The United Nations is telling us that in the years to come, there are going to be hundreds of millions of climate refugees causing national security issues all over the world".
November 20, 2028 Not yet.
May 17, 2023
Global temperatures are likely to surge to new record levels in the next 5 years.
See Quote
From the UNEP, quote: "Global temperatures are likely to surge to new record levels in the next 5 years with far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management & the environment, warns @‌WMO. Urgent #ClimateAction is needed NOW.".
Related: The article linked in the tweet from the World Meteorological Organization.
May 17, 2028 Not yet.
January 21, 2020
Carbon dioxide budget to 'run out' in 8 years, says Greta Thunberg® (17 year old activist).
See Quote
From CNBC, quote: "Speaking during a panel session entitled 'Forging a Sustainable Path Towards a Common Future,' the 17-year-old cited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report from 2018 as she delivered remarks to a packed audience. The IPCC report states the remaining carbon budget would need to fall below 570 gigatons of carbon dioxide in the coming years if the world is to have a 67% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 'With today's emissions levels, the remaining budget is gone in less than eight years,' Thunberg said. 'These aren't anyone's views. This is the science.'".
January 21, 2028 Not yet.
September, 2019
We must achieve zero emissions in 8 years, says Climate Clock.
See Quote
From Climate Clock science page, quote: "The Climate Clock shows two numbers. The first, in red, is a timer, counting down how long it will take, at current rates of emissions, to burn through our 'carbon budget' — the amount of CO2 that can still be released into the atmosphere while limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This is our deadline, the time we have left to take decisive action to keep warming under the 1.5°C threshold. The second number, in green, is tracking the growing % of the world’s energy currently supplied from renewable sources. This is our lifeline. Simply put, we need to get our lifeline to 100% before our deadline reaches 0".
Note: We're only displaying the carbon budget timer from the Climate Clock.
January 1, 2028 Not yet.
November 27, 2016
10 years before climate change results in human extinction, says Emeritus Prof. Guy McPherson (Arizona).
See Quote
From Stuff News (NZ), quote: "That's right. The University of Arizona emeritus professor says in 10 years, humans will cease to exist. Abrupt rises in temperature have us on course for the sixth mass extinction - similar to one that happened about 252 million years ago that culminated in the 'great dying'. [...] 'If you have been given a terminal diagnosis, and I believe we have as a species, then how do we act as individuals towards those around us?'".
November 27, 2026 Not yet.
January 8, 2020
Climate will 'reshape global, national and local politics', claims former Australian MP, Wayne Swann (Labor).
See Quote
From Twitter, quote: "In the next five to ten years climate is going to completely reshape global, national and local politics [...] Deniers in the Coalition think they are arguing with Labor about climate. They are arguing with an even more formidable foe: the laws of physics.".
January 8, 2025 Not yet.
October 15, 2019
Australian MP, Mark Butler (Labor) moves motion to declare a 'climate emergency' in Federal Parliament.
See Quote
From a notice of motion to the House of Representatives, quote: "...efforts to cut greenhouse admissions need to be strengthened to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts; [...] failing to meet the goals of the Paris Accords would have unprecedented and devastating environmental, economic, societal and health impacts for Australia".
Note: The motion did not contain a specific date, however the motion referred to Parris Accords, which has INDC goals for set 2025 and 2030.
December 31, 2024
Not yet.
June 21, 2018
Climate change will wipe out all of humanity says Greta Thunberg®.
See Quote
From Twitter, quote: "A top climate scientist is warning that climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years."
Related: The now deleted article that Thunberg referenced, quoting James Anderson (Harvard).
June 21, 2023 No.
April 18, 2003
Crash course towards massive species extinction, says Defenders of Wildlife.
See Quote
Nina Fascione, Vice President for Field Conservation Programs at Defenders of Wildlife, quote: "Frankly, it looks like we're on a crash course towards massive species extinctions in the next 20 years [...] We could lose one-fifth or 20% of our species within the next two decades. That's a very short amount of time".
April 18, 2023
July 9, 1971
U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming.
See Quote
From The Washington Post, quote: "The world could be as little as 50 or 60 years away from a disastrous new ice age, a leading atmospheric scientist predicts. [...] 'In the next 50 years,' the fine dust man constantly puts into the atmosphere by fossil fuel-burning could screen out so much sunlight that the average temperature could drop by six degrees".
July 31, 2021 No.
July 24, 2019
18 months to take action, says Prince Charles.
See Quote
From the BBC, quote: "'I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival,' said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently".
January 24, 2021 No.
October 14, 2013
Climate Catastrophe Will Hit Tropics Around 2020.
See Quote
From the HuffPost, quote: "The first study to integrate all prior scientific research in order to project approximately when climate change will produce permanent catastrophic consequences has been accepted and will soon be published in the scientific journal Nature, and it finds that things will start going haywire in the tropics at around the year 2020, and in our part of the world at around 2047. [...] Nature shares with Science and PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) the distinction of being tied as the world’s three most prestigious scientific journals, and an article is not published in these journals unless it has undergone extremely rigorous scientific peer-revue; so, climate-change deniers will have no professional credibility in attacking this study [...] None of this is science fiction; all of it is science fact".
December 31, 2020 No.
December 20, 2009
Hoover dam to be a 'dry hole by 2021'.
See Quote
From the MSNBC documentary, Future Earth 2025, quote: "As water levels drop, by 2017 hoover dam will no longer provide drinking water to Las Vegas, Tucson, and San Diego. And it stops generating electricity to Los Angeles. And if nothing is done, the reservoir will be a dry hole by 2021".
Related: Lake Mead Water Level at December 31, 2020.
December 31, 2020 No.
September 18, 1995
'[IPCC] Scientists Say Earth's Warming Could Set Off Wide Disruptions'.
See Quote
From the New York Times, quote: "At the most likely rate of rise, some experts say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years. They are already disappearing at an average of 2 to 3 feet a year.".
September 18, 2020 No.
June 28, 2017
3 'years left to stop dangerous climate change'.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "... But while temperatures have risen, global carbon dioxide emissions have stayed broadly flat for the past three years. This gives hope that the worst effects of climate change – devastating droughts, floods, heatwaves and irreversible sea level rises – may be avoided, according to a letter published in the journal Nature this week. [...] The authors, including former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, argue that the next three years will be crucial. [...] Johan Rockström of the Stockholm Resilience Centre said: 'We have been blessed by a remarkably resilient planet over the past 100 years, able to absorb most of our climate abuse. Now we have reached the end of this era, and need to bend the global curve of emissions immediately, to avoid unmanageable outcomes for our modern world'".
June 28, 2020 No.
September 5, 2012
'End of Australian snow' by 2020.
See Quote
From GriffthNews, quote: "Griffith's Associate Professor Catherine Pickering has researched the effects of declining snow cover and hotter summers on the Australian Alps. [...] 'We’ve predicted by 2020 to lose something like 60% of the snow cover of the Australian Alps,' she said. [...] 'In a few years the amount of water that ski resorts will need to make snow is going to exceed the amount of water that's used by Canberra. And it looks like we are heading back towards dry conditions, so where will they get the water?'".
Related: 15 Day Snow Forecast for June 2020.
June 6, 2020 No.
March 20, 2000
Rare snowfalls will 'cause chaos in 20 years time', humanity will be 'unprepared'.
See Quote
From The Independent, quote: "Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. 'We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time,' he said".
March 20, 2020 No.
June 29, 2017
Four years to save the Earth: 2020 is the deadline...
See Quote
From the Daily Mail (UK), quote: "A world that heats up beyond that threshold will face a crescendo of devastating impacts ranging from deadly heatwaves to mass migration caused by rising seas, the experts warned in a commentary published in the science journal Nature. With 1.0 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming so far, ice sheets that could lift oceans by a dozen metres are melting more quickly, coral reefs are dying from heat stress, and ever more damaging storm surges are hammering coastal communities. [...] 'There is a long way to go to decarbonise the world economy,' according to the commentary signed by former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, three top climate scientists, and two sustainability experts from the business sector. 'When it comes to climate, timing is everything,' they wrote. The authors called on leaders set to gather at the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, on July 7-8 to highlight 2020 as a make-or-break point for taking action".
December 31, 2019 No.
June 12, 2017
Alpine glaciers 'gone' by 2020.
See Quote
From Glacier National Park (Montana) sign: The small alpine glaciers present today started forming about 7,000 years ago and reached their maximum is size and number around 1850, at the end of the Little Ice Age. They are now rapidly shrinking due to human-caused climate change. Computer models indicate the glaciers will all be gone by year 2020.
Related: Glacier National Park to remove all 'glaciers will be gone by 2020' signs, from the KPAX.
Related: The telling tale of Glacier National Park’s ‘gone by 2020’ signs, from the New York Post.
December 31, 2019 No.
November, 2011
Possible 'adverse health impacts in Australia from climate change' by 2020.
See Quote
From Climate Commission's 'The Critical Decade: Climate Change and Health' report, quote: "We need to act now. Decisions we make from now to 2020 will determine the severity of climate change health risks that our children and grandchildren will experience. The longer we wait, the more serious the consequences. [...] Figure 8: Possible timeline of some future adverse health impacts in Australia from climate change". Graphic showing: "Extreme weather events: deaths, hospital admissions, mental health disorders", "Dengue fever", and "Gastroenteritis" to increase from 2010 to 2019 cited from an unpublished article by McMichael in 2011.
Related: Dengue fever virtually eradicated from Far North Queensland, scientists say, from the ABC.
December 31, 2019 No.
January 18, 2007
Snowdon, Brecon Beacons, the Black Mountains, and the Cambrian Mountains will be 'snow-free by 2020'.
See Quote
From The Independent, quote: "But Snowdon may lose its snow cover within 13 years as a result of climate change, Welsh scientists say. [...] Countryside Council for Wales (CCW) disclosed that this winter's accumulation is the lowest since records began 14 years ago. With only a couple of snowfalls this winter, the total depths measured are way down on previous years and, if the trend continues, any kind of the cover could disappear by 2020 [...] Lembit Opik, the leader of the Liberal Democrats in Wales and the MP for Montgomeryshire, said: 'Snow-capped Snowdon has been an iconic Welsh image for centuries. It is shocking to think that in just 14 years, snow on this great mountain could become nothing but a permanent and distant memory.' The CCW predicts that the Brecon Beacons, the Black Mountains and the Cambrian Mountains will also be snow-free by 2020".
Related: Snowdonia Mountains Winter Season 2019- 20.
December 31, 2019 No.
February 21, 2004
President warned 'climate change will destroy us'.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters. [...] major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world".
Related: Pentagon-sponsored climate report sparks hullabaloo in Europe, from SFGate.
Related: Climate Alarmists Misrepresent Pentagon Report, from the Fraser Institute.
December 31, 2019 No.
October 16, 2009
10 year window before climate change is a threat to national security, says Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass).
See Quote
From the HuffPost, quote: "Scientists tell us we have a 10-year window - if even that - before catastrophic climate change becomes inevitable and irreversible. The threat is real, and time is not on our side. [...] Scientists project that the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013. Not in 2050, but four years from now. [...] Make no mistake: catastrophic climate change represents a threat to human security, global stability, and - yes - even to American national security".
October 16, 2019 No.
September 26, 1988
Maldives to be flooded within 30 years.
See Quote
From the Canberra Times (page 6), quote: "A gradual rise in average sea level is threatening to completely cover this Indian Ocean nation of 1196 small islands within the next 30 years, according to authorities".
December 31, 2018 No.
August 21, 2016
Arctic summers ice-free by 2017.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "There is a clear trend down to zero for summer cover. [...] Next year or the year after that, I think it will be free of ice in summer and by that I mean the central Arctic will be ice-free. You will be able to cross over the north pole by ship. There will still be about a million square kilometres of ice in the Arctic in summer but it will be packed into various nooks and crannies...".
Related: Arctic sea ice reaches second lowest minimum in satellite record, from the NSIDC.
August 21, 2017 No.
December 20, 2009
Hoover dam will not longer provide drinking water or electricity.
See Quote
From the MSNBC documentary, Future Earth 2025, quote: "As water levels drop, by 2017 hoover dam will no longer provide drinking water to Las Vegas, Tucson, and San Diego. And it stops generating electricity to Los Angeles. And if nothing is done, the reservoir will be a dry hole by ...".
December 31, 2016 No.
January 30, 2007
'No snows' on Mount Kilimanjaro by 2017, according to Al Gore.
See Quote
From CBS News, quote: "Within a decade, there will be no more snows on Mount Kilimanjaro. The same heat that evaporates more moisture into the air pulls it out of the soil, and this can be very damaging for farmers and people who depend on the land for their livelihood".
Note: A similar claim was also made in the An Inconvenient Truth film.
Related: Snows of Kilimanjaro defy global warming predictions, from MassLive (2019).
December 31, 2016 No.
August 1, 2008
100 months to save the world, a 'Green New Deal' needed.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "We found that, given all of the above, 100 months from today we will reach a concentration of greenhouse gases at which it is no longer 'likely' that we will stay below the 2C temperature rise threshold. [...] So what can our own government do to turn things around today? Over the next 100 months, they could launch a Green New Deal".
Realted: 100 Months: Technical note from the New Economics Foundation.
Realted: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announced a 'Green New Deal' select committee 23 months after the original 100 months had already passed.
December 1, 2016 No.
September 17, 2012
Expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within 4 years.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "One of the world's leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years. In what he calls a 'global disaster' now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for 'urgent' consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures".
September 17, 2016 No.
September 14, 2006
10 years 'left to act in time', according to NASA scientist James Hansen.
See Quote
From MSNBC (Reuters/AP), quote: "A leading U.S. climate researcher says the world has a 10-year window of opportunity to take decisive action on global warming and avert catastrophe. [...] 'I think we have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change ... no longer than a decade, at the most,' [James] Hansen said Wednesday at the Climate Change Research Conference in California’s state capital".
September 14, 2016 No.
May 24, 2006
10 years before the world reachs a point of no return, according to Al Gore.
See Quote
As the writer/host of the An Inconvenient Truth film, Al Gore said that humanity had only 10 years left before the world would reach a point of no return.
May 24, 2016 No.
July 24, 2013
Arctic to be ice-free in 2 years, and create a 'methane catastrophe'.
See Quote
From The Guardian, quote: "...the ice in September will be gone in a very short while, perhaps by 2015. In subsequent years, the ice-free window will widen, to 2-3 months, then 4-5 months etc, and the trends suggest that within 20 years time we may have six ice-free months per year. [...] The loss of sea ice leads to seabed warming, which leads to offshore permafrost melt, which leads to methane release, which leads to enhanced warming, which leads to even more rapid uncovering of seabed".
July 24, 2015 No.
June 2, 2009
6 years before passing 'point of no return'.
See Quote
From the ABC TV special, Earth 2100, quote: "2015 is only six years away, but many experts say that if the world has not reached an agreement to massively reduce greenhouse gases by then, we could pass a point of no return".
December 31, 2014 No.
December 4, 2009
'5 years to save world says Australia's chief scientist', Prof. Penny Sackett (ANU).
See Quote
From the Herald Sun, quote: "The planet has just five years to avoid disastrous global warming, says the Federal Government's chief scientist. [...] She said her role was as an adviser to the Government and not a commentator on public policy, but she did not deny her appointment a year ago was a political one. [...] The professor said even if all the world stopped producing carbon dioxide immediately, temperature increases of 1.3C were unavoidable. If the earth's temperature rose 2C, she warned, there would be risks that were 'difficult and dangerous'".
Related: On the day this prediction was added, Prof. Penny Sackett blocked the Extinction Clock Twitter account.
December 4, 2014 No.
June 10, 2013
Arctic Ocean to be ice-free by 2014.
See Quote
From Sierra Club Canada, Paul Beckwith (Ph.D student), quote: "I have become even more confident about my prediction of total Arctic sea ice destruction in 2013. [...] I find it extremely difficult to comprehend how any sea ice will be left after this year’s summer ‘melt season’. I acknowledge that my sea ice-collapse timeframe is considered ‘out-there’ when compared to mainstream climate models... [...] I really hope I’m wrong folks but I just don’t see it any other way".
December 31, 2013 No.
August 18, 2011
Arctic summers ice-free 'early as 2013'.
See Quote
From a science factsheet, quote: "It is melting so fast that scientists now believe the Arctic could have no ice in the summertime as early as 2013, which is 80 years ahead of what had been predicted just a few years ago".
December 31, 2012 No.
December 12, 2007
Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'.
See Quote
From the BBC, quote: "Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007, [...] So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative".
December 31, 2012 No.
December 12, 2007
Arctic to be ice-free 'by 2012'.
See Quote
From StarNews Online (AP), quote: "...'The Arctic is screaming,' said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government's snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo. [...] This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: 'At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions'".
December 31, 2011 No.
May 1, 2008
50 million climate refugees by 2010, according to UNEP.
See Quote
From the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, quote: "Fifty million climate refugees by 2010".
December 31, 2009 No.
October 19, 2009
'50 days to save the world' according to British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown (Labour Party).
See Quote
From the BBC, quote: "Gordon Brown said negotiators had 50 days to save the world from global warming and break the 'impasse'. [...] The costs of failing to tackle the issue would be greater than the impact of both world wars and the Great Depression combined, the prime minister said".
December 8, 2009 No.
March, 2008
Adelaide 'may run out of water by early 2009', says Prof. Tim Flannery (Melbourne).
See Quote
From a Jetstar in-flight article (page 11), quote: "The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009".
March 31, 2009 No.
April 27, 2008
Arctic summers ice-free 'in 2008'.
See Quote
From the ABC News, quote: "You know when climate change is biting hard when instead of a vast expanse of snow the North Pole is a vast expanse of water. This year, for the first time, Arctic scientists are preparing for that possibility".
August 31, 2008 No.
May 3, 2007
Brisbane and Adelaide to 'run out of water', says Prof. Tim Flannery (Melbourne).
See Quote
From the Australian Financial Review: "Environmental researcher Tim Flannery has warned that Brisbane and Adelaide ... could run out of water by year's end. He said the country was facing a 'catastrophic' situation".
December 31, 2007 No.
March 20, 2000
Snowfalls 'now just a thing of the past', children won't know what snow is.
See Quote
From The Independent, quote: "Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives. [...] According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become 'a very rare and exciting event'. 'Children just aren't going to know what snow is,' he said".
Related: 2005 United Kingdom snow events, from Wikipedia.
December 21, 2005 No.
July 17, 1954
Arctic Ocean to be ice-free by 2004.
See Quote
From the The Argus (AAP), quote: "The ice-packed Arctic Ocean might become navigable in another 25 or 50 years if the present 'warming-up' tendency of the Polar region continued".
July 17, 2004 No.
April, 1970
Global Cooling by 2000, according to Emeritus Prof. Kenneth Watt (UC Davis)
See Quote
In relation to the first Earth Day event, quote: "The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age".
April 1, 2000 No.
April, 1970
Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years, says George Wald (Harvard).
See Quote
In relation to the first Earth Day event, quote: "Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind".
April 1, 2000 No.
June 30, 1989
U.N. predicts disaster if global warming not checked by 2000.
See Quote
From The Associated Press (AP), quote: "A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000".
December 31, 1999 No.
May 18, 1972
Arctic Ocean to be ice-free by 2000.
See Quote
From The Tuscaloosa News, Washington (AP), quote: "Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2,000".
December 31, 1999 No.
March 7, 1956
Global peak oil by 2000.
See Quote
From Forbes, quote: "Hubbert projected that the global peak in crude oil production would occur around the year 2000 at 34 million bpd [barrels per day]. In reality, crude oil production in 2000 was more than twice as high at about 75 million bpd. Further, while conventional crude oil production did flatten around 2005, more than a decade later there is no evidence that it has begun to decline".
Related: Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, by M. King Hubbert.
December 31, 1999 No.
April, 1970
25 years before 75% to 80% of all living animals become extinct.
See Quote
Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look magazine, quote: "Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct".
December 31, 1994 No.
February, 1989
Running out of landfill space, says EPA.
See Quote
J. Winston Porter, from the Solid Waste Dilemma: An Agenda for Action report (executive summary), quote: "But we're running out of space to bury it in existing landfills; more than one third of the nation's landfills will be full within the next few years and many cities are unable to find enough acceptable sites for new landfills or new combustors".
Related: Three Myths about Trash (Mises Institute).
February 28, 1994 No.
September 26, 1988
Drinking water to 'dry up' in the Maldives.
See Quote
From the Canberra Times (page 6), quote: "But the end of the Maldives and its people could come sooner if drinking water supplies dry up by 1992, as predicted".
December 31, 1991 No.
During 1974
Peak ozone depletion increasing skin cancer rates by 1990.
See Quote
From a United Press International (UPI) report, quote: "estimates report that ozone destruction would not reach its peak until about 1990 [...] ozone destruction will result in an additional 8,000 cases of skin cancer by 1990 and at least one prediction that incidence of skin cancer could be much higher".
Related: Canstat: A digest of facts and figures on cancer (November 2007).
December 31, 1989 No.
August 10, 1969
Everyone will be vaporized, according to Paul Ehrlich (Stanford).
See Quote
From The New York Times (page 53), quote: "We must realize that unless we are extremely lucky, everybody will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years".
December 31, 1988 No.
April 1, 1970
Population will completely outstrip food supply, says Paul Ehrlich (Stanford).
See Quote
From Mademoiselle magazine, quote: "Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years".
April 1, 1980 No.
June 24, 1974
New Ice Age, 'no indication of reversing', causing droughts and affecting grain-exporting countries.
See Quote
From Time magazine, quote: "the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. [...] satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. [...] Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. [...] Man, too, may be somewhat responsible for the cooling trend. [...] But there is a peril more immediate than the prospect of another ice age. [...] Even if temperature and rainfall patterns change only slightly in the near future in one or more of the three major grain-exporting countries-the U.S., Canada and Australia -global food stores would be sharply reduced [...] Warns [Kenneth] Hare: 'I don't believe that the world's present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row'".
December 31, 1975 No.
October 6, 1970
America subject to water & food rationing, says Paul Ehrlich (Stanford).
See Quote
From the Redlands Daily Facts (page 3), quote: "America will be subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980".
Related: Simon-Ehrlich wager.
December 31, 1973 No.
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